Why more migrants needed in Singapore

SINGAPORE: Another study has been released in support of Singapore's need to attract new migrants to slow down the impact of an ageing and dwindling population.


Released by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), the report is the first to take into account the country's non-resident population.


This includes those on work permits, long-term social visit passes and foreign students.


In its report, the institute sets out three scenarios.


One, where the proportion of foreigners remains at 25 per cent (or one in four) of the total population.


Two, where this proportion drops to 20 per cent (or one in five).


And three, where the proportion is raised to 33 per cent (or one in three).


For all scenarios, it is assumed that Singapore will take in 30,000 new citizens or Permanent Residents every year, and the country's Total Fertility Rate remains at 1.24 


The report states that a higher non-resident population will mean a larger total population, from the current 5 million now to 6.8 million in 2030, if the proportion of foreigners in the population is raised to 33 per cent.


And while the average population will still get older, a higher proportion of non-residents will slow this process down.


The same is said for the support ratio between a working adult and an elderly.


While the ratio will still decline, with more foreigners in the midst, the impact will be somewhat mitigated.


Assuming the country's Total Fertility Rate remains at 1.24 and it brings in 30,000 new citizens or PRs yearly with non-residents, the support ratio now for every one elderly aged 65 and above to a working adult is 1:10.3.


In about 20 years, this will be halved at 1:5.1, if foreigners make up 33 per cent of the population.


If Singapore takes in no immigrants, there will be only about two working adults supporting each elderly person, by then.


So, even with more foreigners in the mix, there will be fewer Singaporeans supporting the elderly.


But the paper shows that the problem is exacerbated without taking in migrants.


With or without foreigners, the labour force will be hit.


Even with the bumped-up crop of foreigners, the report shows the growth in total labour force will dip from the average 3.6 per cent annual growth which Singapore has been enjoying since the 70s. 


With the current proportion of one in four foreigners in the midst, the labour force will grow by 1.04 per cent over the next 10 years.


Raising the proportion to one in three will see the labour force grow to 2.47 per cent annually, over the same period. 


The IPS report comes just a week after a similar paper was issued by the National Population and Talent Division.


Both papers present population projections based on certain assumption and are not meant to be forecasts or predictions.


Together, the reports will form the basis of a national discussion on populations issues that will culminate in a White Paper to be released by the end of the year.


The White Paper on Population will set out issues important to Singaporeans and map out strategies for a sustainable population.


This will cover areas such as housing, transport and land use. 


- CNA/wk